- 91% of aviation finance leaders in Ireland say geopolitical uncertainties are a moderate or major challenge.
- Every respondent expressed concern that airline defaults or restructuring could increase in the next 12-24 months due to higher oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and pressure on weaker airline balance sheets.
- Half are monitoring ways to address the transition to Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and low-or zero-emission aircraft but have no active plans yet. Nearly half (41%) said it is not currently a priority for their business.
- Deloitte calls for targeted and coordinated initiatives to encourage investment in SAF – such as focused investment or widening the accessibility of the R&D tax credit to encourage investment.
Airline defaults and restructurings could rise over the next two years as fuel price volatility, geopolitical tensions and strained carrier balance sheets put renewed pressure on the aviation sector, Deloitte Ireland’s 2026 Aviation Finance Leaders Survey has found.
Deloitte Ireland’s Aviation Finance Leaders Survey captured the views of senior executives across Ireland’s aircraft leasing industry. Conducted between March and April 2026, respondents collectively oversee more than 4,000 aircraft operating worldwide.
Ireland remains central to the industry with 19 of the world’s top 20 aircraft lessors operating from the country, and Irish-based firms managing approximately 60% of the global leased fleet.
Despite these headwinds, 68% of the respondents are more optimistic about the financial prospects of the company compared to a year ago, while 27% said they are a little more pessimistic. None said a lot more pessimistic.
Geopolitical uncertainty is a concern for nearly all respondents however, with 91% citing geopolitical uncertainties as a moderate or major challenge.
100% are concerned that airline defaults or restructuring will happen in the next 12-24 months. Reasons given for these concerns are, amongst others, higher oil prices increasing the risk of defaults, geopolitical risk, and airlines without a strong balance sheet suffering from squeezed margins.
Supply chain disruption also continues to weigh heavily on the industry, with 82% identifying disruption to aircraft and parts supply as a moderate or major challenge. Half of respondents say maintenance inflation and cost pressures are major challenges.
“This sector has proven itself resilient many times over the years,” points out David McCaffrey, Aviation Finance and Leasing Services lead for Deloitte Ireland. “From events such as the Covid-19 pandemic to supply chain constraints, aircrafts stranded following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and now the situation in the Middle East driving jet fuel price volatility, the industry has repeatedly faced major external shocks and continues to adapt.
“That resilience is reflected in the high optimism levels in our survey, even as geopolitical risk intensifies.”
From waste to wingtip: fuel crisis failing to accelerate Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) adoption
The survey suggests the aviation leasing sector is still in the early stages of preparing for the transition to lower-emission aviation.
In Deloitte’s survey, none of the respondents see environmental compliance and sustainability mandates as a major challenge.
The highest number, 55%, say zero and low-emission aircraft are not part of their current strategy. Just over one in three (36%) say it is but in ten or more years, while only 5% say in five years.
Half are monitoring ways to address the transition to SAF and low-or zero-emission aircraft but have no active plans yet.
The findings come despite growing recognition across the sector that SAF is likely to play a critical bridging role in reducing aviation emissions while longer-term technologies such as hydrogen-powered or fully electric aircraft continue in their early phase development and viability assessment.
“While the Government’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel Policy Roadmap is a positive start,” says Ron Doyle, a Tax & Legal partner in Deloitte Ireland who has almost two decades of experience advising aircraft lessors, “the sector needs to be supported both in terms of production and uptake of SAF. We believe that adoption of SAF can be improved through further incentivisation of SAF training and education, some of which we see in Irish universities and indeed Irish lessors already. A more easily accessible R&D tax credit would also encourage investment in SAF technologies and ultimately enhanced SAF production.
“Given SAF supply chains are immature, and the economics are challenging at present, the current fuel crisis reinforces why the long-term case for alternative fuels is becoming harder to ignore.”
The main runway for growth
The Deloitte survey also points to further consolidation across the industry in the coming years.
- 77% expect a moderate increase in consolidation and M&A activity over the next 3-5 years.
- 55% said acquisitions are a priority over the next year.
- 87% identified organic growth and expansion into new markets as key strategic priorities.
- 82% plan to increase capital expenditure while simultaneously reducing operating expenditure.
- More than 90% identified technology transformation as a major focus area.
- 86% cite cost reduction as a priority.
- Outside of core aircraft assets, respondents see engine leasing as the top adjacent area companies plan to invest in over the next three years, with 73% selecting this. For just over half (55%) it’s maintenance, repair and overhaul facilities (MRO).
- Only 9% said they plan to invest in sustainable aviation fuel or helicopter-related opportunities over the next three years.
